PART I
Chapter 1. Introduction
1.0 Models and Modeling
1.1 Well-structured Versus Ill-structured Problems
1.2 Modeling versus Problem Solving
1.3 Modeling for Insight
1.4 Novice Modelers and Expert Modelers
1.5 Craft Skills in Modeling
1.6 A Structured Modeling Process
1.7 Modeling Tools
1.8 Summary
Chapter 2. Foundations of Modeling for Insight
2.0 Introduction
2.1 The Modeling Process
2.2 Tools for Modeling
2.3 Presentation Skills
2.4 Summary
Chapter 3. Spreadsheet Engineering
3.0 Why Use Spreadsheets?
3.1 Spreadsheet Engineering
3.2 Summary
PART II
Chapter 4. A First Example: The Red Cross Problem
4.0 Introduction
4.1 The Red Cross Problem
4.2 Bringing Blood Quality into the Analysis
4.3 Improving and Iterating
4.4 Summary
Chapter 5. The Retirement Planning Problem
5.0 Introduction
5.1 Retirement Planning (A)
5.2 Retirement Planning (B)
5.3 Retirement Planning (C)
5.4 Presentation of Results
5.5 Summary
Chapter 6. The Technology Option Problem
6.0 Introduction
6.1 Technology Option (A)
6.2 Technology Option (B)
6.3 Further Refinements
6.4 Presentation of Results
6.5 Summary
PART III
Chapter 7. MediDevice
7.0 Introduction
7.1 MediDevice (A)
7.2 Revising the model
7.3 MediDevice (B)
7.4 Presentation of Results
7.5 Summary
Chapter 8. Draft Commercials
8.0 Introduction
8.1 Draft Commercials Case
8.2 Problem Formulation
8.3 Influence Diagram
8.4 M1 Model and Analysis
8.5 M2 Model and Analysis
8.6 M3 Model and Analysis
8.7 M4 Model and Analysis
8.8 Presentation of Results
8.9 Summary
Chapter 9. New England College Skiway
9.0 Introduction
9.1 New England College Skiway Case
9.2 Problem Formulation
9.3 Influence Diagram
9.4 M1 Model and Analysis
9.5 Analyzing Mountain Capacity
9.6 M2 Model and Analysis
9.7 M3 Model and Analysis
9.8 Considering Uncertainty
9.9 Presentation of Results
9.10 Summary
Chapter 10. National Leasing
10.0 Introduction
10.1 National Leasing Case
10.2 Problem Formulation
10.3 Influence Diagram
10.4 M1 Model and Analysis
10.5 M2 Model and Analysis
10.6 M3 Model and Analysis
10.7 M4 Model and Analysis
10.8 Presentation of Results
10.9 Summary
Chapter 11. Pharma X and Pharma Y
11.0 Introduction
11.1 Pharma X and Pharma Y Case
11.2 Problem Formulation
11.3 Influence Diagram
11.4 Expected Value or Simulation?
11.5 M1 Model and Analysis
11.6 M2 Model and Analysis
11.7 M3 Model and Analysis
11.8 Presentation of Results
11.9 Summary
Chapter 12. Invivo Diagnostics, Inc.
12.0 Introduction
12.1 Invivo Diagnostics Case
12.2 Problem Formulation
12.3 M1 Model and Insights
12.4 M2 Model and Insights
12.5 M3 Model and Analysis
12.6 M4 Model and Analysis
12.7 Presentation of Results
12.8 Summary
Appendix A: Guide to Solver
Appendix B: Guide to Crystal Ball
Appendix C: Guide to Sensitivity Toolkit