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11:30 AM - 1:00 PM
Callen Anthony: NYU Stern School of Business
GUARDIANS OF THE TEMPLATE: HOW AUTOGRAPHIC AFFILIATIONS SHAPE TECHNOLOGY USE
Strategy
GUARDIANS OF THE TEMPLATE: HOW AUTOGRAPHIC AFFILIATIONS SHAPE TECHNOLOGY USE
Speaker: Callen Anthony: NYU Stern School of Business
Time: 11:30 AM - 1:00 PM
Location:
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Subrina Shen: The University of Texas at Austin
Incoming Performance Spillover Information and Guided Distant Search: Knowing How Others’ Ideas Affect Me Benefits My Idea Generation
Strategy
Incoming Performance Spillover Information and Guided Distant Search: Knowing How Others’ Ideas Affect Me Benefits My Idea Generation
Speaker: Subrina Shen: The University of Texas at Austin
Time: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Location:
2:00 PM - 3:20 PM
David Ridley: Duke University
Optimal Conditional Drug Approval
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Optimal Conditional Drug Approval
Speaker: David Ridley: Duke University
Time: 2:00 PM - 3:20 PM
Location:
Tuck Center for Healthcare and Dartmouth Dept of Economics present: David Ridley Duke University October 16, 2024 2:00 - 3:20pm 310 Silsby Optimal Conditional Drug Approval Abstract: Regulators often grant conditional approval for drugs based on limited testing, with final approval pending confirmatory trials. Critics argue that this can lead to wasted spending on unproven drugs and question whether confirmatory testing is as costly as firms claim. In our model, we analyze optimal approval policies where firms have private information about testing costs, and the regulator's payoff depends on the drug's expected effectiveness. While critics are correct that some money is wasted on ineffective drugs, our model shows how conditional approval allows patients faster access, encourages drug development, and leads to earlier price reductions.
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Peer Fiss: USC Marshall School of Business
UNPACKING THE GENDER GAP IN TECHNOLOGY ENTREPRENEURSHIP: A SET-ANALYTIC APPROACH
Strategy
UNPACKING THE GENDER GAP IN TECHNOLOGY ENTREPRENEURSHIP: A SET-ANALYTIC APPROACH
Speaker: Peer Fiss: USC Marshall School of Business
Time: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Location:
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Carolyn Fu: Harvard Business School
Cancelled - Experimental Pas de Deux: Coupled Firm and Audience Learning at the Ballet
Strategy
Cancelled - Experimental Pas de Deux: Coupled Firm and Audience Learning at the Ballet
Speaker: Carolyn Fu: Harvard Business School
Time: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Location:
Cancelled. Guest to be rescheduled
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Henning Piezunka: INSEAD
PREDICTING NETWORK CHANGES FROM RUMORS
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PREDICTING NETWORK CHANGES FROM RUMORS
Speaker: Henning Piezunka: INSEAD
Time: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Location:
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Carolyn Fu: Harvard Business School
Setting the Stage: The Interplay of Firm Boundary and Learning at the Opera
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Setting the Stage: The Interplay of Firm Boundary and Learning at the Opera
Speaker: Carolyn Fu: Harvard Business School
Time: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Location:
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Nicolaj Siggelkow: Wharton
Learning about contingencies: The power of initial simplicity
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Learning about contingencies: The power of initial simplicity
Speaker: Nicolaj Siggelkow: Wharton
Time: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
Location:
This paper investigates the performance consequences of how managers update their contingency beliefs in response to feedback, emphasizing the interaction between first-order learning (updating performance expectations) and second-order learning (updating contingency beliefs). Managers often begin tasks with inaccurate contingency assumptions—either overly simple or overly complex—which shape their initial decisions. Our research explores whether starting with simple or complex contingency beliefs is more advantageous when learning occurs in environments characterized by varying degrees of true contingencies. Employing a contextual multi-arm bandit simulation, we reveal nuanced learning dynamics: without second-order learning, complex initial beliefs consistently outperform simpler ones. However, when second-order learning is enabled, initially simple beliefs significantly enhance managerial decision-making over time, even potentially surpassing the performance of managers with initially accurate beliefs. Conversely, those with overly complex initial beliefs demonstrate limited improvement through second-order learning alone. Importantly, this pattern changes substantially when managers have considerable prior information about action outcomes across contexts; under these conditions, complex initial beliefs become advantageous. Thus, the benefits of simplicity versus complexity in contingency beliefs critically depend on the interplay between first- and second-order learning and the availability of prior information, offering actionable insights for managerial decision-making in uncertain environments.